Log in

Register



Topic-icon Charting rises and falls in Beef schedule

  • Posts: 14222
  • Thank you received: 407
2 months 1 week ago #544480 by LongRidge

Once upon a time ... and this is not a fairy story .... I tried. But there are far too many variables to be able to get any sort of accurate prediction. The main ones are
Exchange Rate. If our dollar changes markedly then the price changes, sometimes quite a lot. I suspect that the freezing companies dare not to have too much insurance of this.
Weather. A drought or good growing weather in Argentina, USA, Canada or Australia will mean either greater or lesser supply to the meat works.
Disease. This was a huge factor with BSE in Europe in the late '90s. Currently it is less of a factor., but when one of the major exporters has a disease outbreak then meat from other countries is wanted, which increases the price of beef if beef has not been affected. With BSE the beef market almost disappeared, but mutton improved. With the Swine Flu in Asia, the Asians ate more mutton and beef.
The timing of the dairy cow cull in autumn tends to drop the beef price.
Priced tend to be higher in winter and spring, when there is not much dairy cull, and when most animals do not have prime condition. If your cattle are in prime condition about July to September, that is generally the time when the prices are best.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 43
  • Thank you received: 9

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 11954
  • Thank you received: 202
2 months 1 week ago #544483 by Sue

That's a nice graph Jaybee- does it come for different classes eg P2 heifer or Cow?

The Farmers weekly usually has a graph of prices cw for this week, same week last year and 5 yr average for N Island and S.Island.
farmersweekly.co.nz/topic/virtual-public...weekly-nz-14-01-2019 page 38/39

Because there are so many variables- even between works as well as between islands you would have to pick your class/ weight range/works and just build your own graph over time?!


Sue
Labrador lover for yonks, breeder of pedigree Murray Grey cattle for almost as long, and passionate poultry person for more years than I care to count.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 9646
  • Thank you received: 435
2 months 1 week ago #544484 by Stikkibeek

Well now, given that those charts are more or less what I want to know, they are not accurate. We got 6.00 a kilo for some prime steers last August but pin interest seems to be always a week or more behind trends, and this has also acted against us when we thought we were getting good value, but the reality was the schedule changed the day after they slaughtered and we were paid on the lower rate.
Makes me cringe when we get so little for prime cattle and then the supermarkets are charging up to $39 a kilo for steak they pay us $5.40 for!


Did you know, that what you thought I said, was not what I meant :S

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 14222
  • Thank you received: 407
2 months 1 week ago #544486 by LongRidge

Grace and Alliance, and probably the other processors, can be obtained by email if you ask them to put you on their mailing list. If you are in the North Island you have to be careful they are sending you the North Island schedule, and South Island ditto. Usually the South Island prices are much lower than up North. You also have to be a bit careful with reading the schecule, because there can be a big difference between shareholder and not.
The schedules come out late Friday afternoon for next week. If you send the animal/s in on Thursday or Friday there is a chance that they won't be killed until next week, at next weeks schedule. We find it hugely better to work with the meat company's stock agent, rather than a private agent. We arrange with the company's agent which day to send them, and then with sheep we phone the Yards Stockman for what time, and sometimes day, he wants them.
Be slightly consoled that we get paid for the bones at the same price as the meat. About 25 to 35% of the carcase is bone, so at %5.40 / kg carcase weight (cw), that makes the meat worth about $7.70 / kg.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 11954
  • Thank you received: 202
2 months 1 week ago #544490 by Sue

That is another of the problems, some works pay a premium if you are a regular supplier/shareholder and others just seem to pay more or less than those very 'average' results posted in the paper.

We can send to 4 different works around us andthe going rate varies with each one-so you can either play one off against the other and when reading the week result you can assume you will be around 10c kg better or worse!


Sue
Labrador lover for yonks, breeder of pedigree Murray Grey cattle for almost as long, and passionate poultry person for more years than I care to count.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 43
  • Thank you received: 9
2 months 1 week ago #544498 by Jaybee

My agent has a list of the weekly schedules that I think come out each Sunday. You get paid the rate at the time the cattle are killed, so it can be different from the rate quoted when you booked them in. Sometimes you can get a better rate at one works over another, for instance Greenlea were paying about 30c a kilo more than most a couple of months ago.

I can usually get a premium of about 10c or so, but I send in bigger numbers than probably most people on here. $6 a kilo is a pretty good rate, you can't really compare it to the cost of retail prime cuts because a lot is bone, fat and inferior cuts and there is also the labour involved in butchering it up for sale.

Last Edit: 2 months 1 week ago by Jaybee.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 9646
  • Thank you received: 435
2 months 1 week ago #544499 by Stikkibeek

Jaybee wrote: $6 a kilo is a pretty good rate, you can't really compare it to the cost of retail prime cuts because a lot is bone, fat and inferior cuts and there is also the labour involved in butchering it up for sale.

But conveniently missing is the fact that it costs money to raise a good beef animal. So why can't we factor in the price of purchase, the price of raising, the price of winter feed, the price of labour to feed, nurture and raise quality beef.not to mention grazing. Even inferior cuts like shin meat and gravybeef attract 19.99 a kilo in the supermarket so don't defend the supermarkets when they are hiking the price to make profit


Did you know, that what you thought I said, was not what I meant :S

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 9646
  • Thank you received: 435
2 months 5 days ago #544538 by Stikkibeek

Interesting charts I can keep an eye on, but as we sell to Countdown at a slightly better rate, I think it would be best to start my own chart.
What is the best data to put on x and y, and minimum/maximums.
I'd like to cover each month by the week if I can since that seems to be when prices change. Is that possible? I only have Microsoft office excel 2003 or Apache open office 4 which I am not so familiar with.


Did you know, that what you thought I said, was not what I meant :S

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 8987
  • Thank you received: 84
2 months 1 day ago #544584 by max2

Stikkibeek wrote:

Jaybee wrote: $6 a kilo is a pretty good rate, you can't really compare it to the cost of retail prime cuts because a lot is bone, fat and inferior cuts and there is also the labour involved in butchering it up for sale.

But conveniently missing is the fact that it costs money to raise a good beef animal. So why can't we factor in the price of purchase, the price of raising, the price of winter feed, the price of labour to feed, nurture and raise quality beef.not to mention grazing. Even inferior cuts like shin meat and gravybeef attract 19.99 a kilo in the supermarket so don't defend the supermarkets when they are hiking the price to make profit



yes especially when you are buying in that calf at retail (sales yard) prices to begin with, but selling at wholesale/unknown pricing...

Its a discussion we have every year in our household. This year again in particular because the local weaner fairs are a month behind last year, are we going to be receiving an extra premium for hanging onto our weaners over this (dry) month? When and who determined the fair date was going to be held later? certainly none of my agents told me.

For us, the decision to put a reserve on our stock and hang onto them longer seems to be the logical solution. However like you Stikki we would still be selling at wholesale unknown prices.

Surely an Employer would be fined if they did this to an employee, turn up for work and give them a bit less than last week because it wasn't a great week?

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 11954
  • Thank you received: 202
2 months 1 day ago #544585 by Sue

I think that most of the time this is how the agricultural scene works. Getting a return for your produce can vary from week to week depending on supply and demand and you can never rely on a certain price until it is in the bank.

. We live in a very horticutural area and I know my friends who are flower or vegetable growers rely on an often unknown price when their produce goes to market.

One flower grower sending gladioli to Auckland actually got a bill, as the return was less than the freight cost. Another lettuce grower ploughed in his crop when it was going to cost more to pick and freight than what he would get for crates of beautiful lettuce.

I just sent 2 cows off to the works today, I've no idea what weight they will go or what the price per kg carcase weight will be- but knowing they have to go and the works are filling up with empty dairy cows I daresay it won't be great. Only saving grace is that there is heaps of grass round us and they may hold on to them a bit longer!


Sue
Labrador lover for yonks, breeder of pedigree Murray Grey cattle for almost as long, and passionate poultry person for more years than I care to count.
The following user(s) said Thank You: max2

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 8987
  • Thank you received: 84
2 months 20 hours ago #544592 by max2

We should ask ourselves Sue why this is an acceptable practice for the agricultural/food production industry and no other....

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 11954
  • Thank you received: 202
2 months 18 hours ago #544594 by Sue

max2 wrote: We should ask ourselves Sue why this is an acceptable practice for the agricultural/food production industry and no other....


I can't see any other option, I think it is how it works all round the world! I was thinking of perhaps the wine industry was different but on second thoughts even that is a supply and demand industry, also reliant on weather as well as overseas markets, and the economy.

I think when you can get toed into a processor for the season the expected returns can be more reliable- but then that cmpany is reliant on the overseas market and the rise and fall of the dollar on the world market too- so we are back to square one!

Surely you are not suggesting we go back to subsidies so we get a guaranteed market price for our produce? :) .


Sue
Labrador lover for yonks, breeder of pedigree Murray Grey cattle for almost as long, and passionate poultry person for more years than I care to count.
The following user(s) said Thank You: max2

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 9646
  • Thank you received: 435
1 month 3 weeks ago #544614 by Stikkibeek

I have just been talking to our stock buyer. He sends our beef to progressive, (countdown) Pin interest have this weeks schedule at 5.40 but our buyer tells me he has been getting 5.60 all summer. So, why are the figures so inaccurate and why were they falling (on pin interest) since Christmas? Could it be that their figures are guesstimates? If so, what is the use of Pin interest? I don't want someones guess. I want factual information.


Did you know, that what you thought I said, was not what I meant :S

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Posts: 14222
  • Thank you received: 407
1 month 3 weeks ago #544615 by LongRidge

If you have enough animals to supply even quality and quantity throughout the year then you have some negotiating power to request a bonus above schedule payment. A big farmer like Landcorp can do this. A stock agent can do this too if he has enough contacts with enough of the correct quality and quantity of animals.
I don't use a stock agent because I like the co-operative theory, and being able to get the extremely rare mistakes fixed by communicating directly with the company. When we had problems with our goats going to Grace our agents considered our problem too small to be worked on. We were paid 25% less than we should have been, but that was ... only... $400. When we eventually did find the person at Grace who could fix the payment problem, it took hum 3 attempts before he got it right :-(. And we learnt lots of things that has stopped us breeding goats.
The payment to the farmers by the processors is most definitely a guess, and sometimes they make a profit and other times make a loss. But that is the same in every business, as Kodak found, and the video industry.
But .... I am going to become a millionaire by growing geese for pen quills :-), and sheep for wool.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Time to create page: 0.098 seconds
Go to top

Sign up for my monthly newsletter!

Get all the latest news along with practical tips and expert advice.